South Sudan Crisis: Warning of Political Collapse

South Sudan’s government is facing a crisis of legitimacy and risks political collapse, a senior rebel official warned on Friday, citing eroding international support and the militarization of civilians amid escalating tensions between the country’s top leaders.

Meeting in Uganda

The warning from General Oyai Deng Ajak, a key opposition figure loosely aligned with the holdout Real SPLM faction, comes weeks after an unannounced meeting in Uganda between Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni, South Sudan’s Vice President Rebecca Nyandeng de Mabior, and opposition officials, including Oyai.

Renewed Violence Looms

The country now teeters on the brink of renewed violence as tensions rise between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, who was placed under house arrest in Juba on March 26. Kiir’s faction has signaled it may oust Machar—who holds his position under a 2018 power-sharing deal—accusing him of involvement in recent clashes in Nasir.

Call for Inclusive Government

In a statement, Gen. Ajak accused Kiir’s government of driving the nation toward chaos and called for the establishment of an inclusive government that reflects the will of the citizens before it’s too late. His remarks highlight frustration over tribal divisions and a stalled peace process more than a decade after independence.

Global Standing

Ajak cited South Sudan’s deteriorating global standing, including a U.S. plan to shut its Juba embassy and withdrawals by some European diplomats. He warned of growing tribal militia threats and a weakening national army, saying arming civilians risks deeper conflict.

Unity for South Sudan

Violence has surged in Upper Nile State, further destabilizing the country. Invoking South Sudan’s independence struggle, Gen. Ajak urged unity among leaders and citizens, emphasizing the need to recommit to South Sudan to prevent losing everything.

The government has not responded to Ajak’s statement.

Lakes State Launches Measles Vaccination Campaign

Lakes State has officially launched a 10-day measles vaccination campaign aimed at vaccinating 297,867 children between the ages of 6 months and 5 years. This initiative comes in response to the rising number of measles cases reported in Rumbek Center, Wulu, Rumbek East, and Cueibet counties, with a total of 72 confirmed cases.

Dr. Maker Malok Chieny, Director General of the State Ministry of Health, addressed the public during the launch, emphasizing that the measles outbreak has become a significant public health concern. “We have seen a rising number of cases in the first four months of 2025, particularly in various counties,” he said.

Dr. Chieny clarified that the vaccination campaign specifically targets children aged 6 months to 5 years, excluding adults. He explained that while vaccines are available, some cases are still being reported, with many children suffering severe complications such as pneumonia, blindness, and other health risks.

“We aim to vaccinate 297,867 children under 5 years of age. We have enough vaccines to cover this number, with over 350,000 doses available,” he stated. “We will not run out of vaccines, and we plan to ensure all targeted children are vaccinated.”

Dr. Chieny also urged the national Ministry of Health to increase the number of vaccination teams to ensure comprehensive coverage across all communities. “With commitment from the State Ministry of Health and our partners, I believe we will succeed in eradicating measles in Lakes State, just as other countries have done.”

Poth Majak Daljang, Minister of Agriculture and government representative, expressed his support for the campaign, praising the Ministry of Health and partners for their timely efforts. “We are grateful to the Ministry of Health and our partners for bringing this important campaign at a time when the rainy season is approaching, and cases are increasing,” he said.

Minister Daljang reassured the public about the safety of vaccination teams. “As a government, we will ensure that health workers are protected and safe across all counties,” he said. He also extended his gratitude to UNICEF for supplying the vaccines, recognizing the organization’s continuous support for South Sudan’s health initiatives.

UNICEF Health Officer Dr. Kawa Koul Tong reiterated UNICEF’s commitment to supporting the Ministry of Health in delivering essential health services, particularly focusing on improving primary healthcare. “The measles vaccination campaign is part of our ongoing efforts to ensure that every child receives the necessary vaccines,” she said. “Measles is a deadly disease that primarily affects children, and we must ensure that no child is left behind during this campaign.”

Dr. Tong also emphasized the importance of collaboration to ensure the success of the campaign. “We need to work together—county medical officers, the Ministry of Health, and communities—to reach every child in this vaccination drive.”

Alier Abel Garang, Data Manager for EPI (WHO) in Lakes State, acknowledged the joint efforts of the national and state Ministries of Health, as well as frontline health workers and implementing partners. “This campaign is the result of dedicated teamwork between the government, WHO, Gavi, UNICEF, and other partners,” he said. “Surveillance and monitoring show that routine measles vaccination coverage remains low in many areas, leading to continued outbreaks. We must address this gap to protect our communities.”

He concluded with a call to action: “Let us move forward with energy, unity, and purpose. Together, we can ensure that this campaign reaches every child, every family, and every community in need.”

With the support of health officials, international partners, and the local community, Lakes State aims to significantly reduce measles cases and protect children from this preventable disease.

A Nation at a Crossroads

South Sudan on the brink of civil war once again reminds the world of the fragile dream born with so much hope on July 9, 2011. After decades of struggle against Sudanese rule, independence was supposed to bring peace, prosperity, and unity. Instead, old wounds, tribal loyalties, and political ambitions have reopened, threatening to undo the sacrifices of generations.

Today, with violence flaring between factions loyal to President Salva Kiir and those associated with former Vice President Riek Machar, South Sudan stands at a defining moment. Will it succumb to another devastating civil war, or will it find a new path forward? The answer will shape the destiny of Africa’s youngest nation for decades to come.

The Deep Roots of Conflict: A History Back to 1950

President Salva Kiir of South Sudan during official event

To understand South Sudan’s current crisis, one must travel back to the early 1950s. British colonial administrators, facing demands for Sudanese independence, ignored deep cultural, religious, and ethnic divisions between the Arab-Muslim north and the African-Christian south.

In 1956, Sudan gained independence. Almost immediately, tensions exploded. Southern Sudanese, who had little political representation, faced Arabization policies that marginalized their identity, language, and religion. By 1955, even before official independence, the First Sudanese Civil War had begun, lasting until 1972.

The Addis Ababa Agreement of 1972 provided autonomy for the south but failed to address deeper grievances. When President Jaafar Nimeiry attempted to impose Islamic law nationwide in 1983, the Second Sudanese Civil War erupted, leading to over two million deaths and four million displacements over 22 brutal years.

The Rise of SPLM/A

Emerging from the chaos was the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A), founded by Dr. John Garang. Garang envisioned a “New Sudan” of equality, not immediate secession. However, divisions even within the SPLM/A soon emerged, notably between Garang’s vision and the more secessionist agenda of others, including Riek Machar.

These early splits sowed seeds of mistrust that still haunt South Sudanese politics.

Independence and the Birth of a Fragile State

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005 ended the civil war, granting the south autonomy and setting the stage for a referendum. Tragically, Dr. Garang died shortly after in a helicopter crash, removing a unifying figure.

In 2011, an overwhelming 98.83% of South Sudanese voted for independence. The Republic of South Sudan was born in a moment of euphoria, but with fragile institutions, an underdeveloped economy, and deep-seated ethnic divisions.

The Descent into Internal Conflict

Riek Machar Addressing South Sudan Crisis

The Kiir-Machar Power Struggle

Initially, President Salva Kiir and Vice President Riek Machar promised a broad-based government. Yet political rivalry and ethnic tension simmered beneath the surface: Kiir, a Dinka; Machar, a Nuer.

In 2013, amid accusations of an attempted coup by Machar’s allies, violence erupted in Juba. What began as a political struggle quickly spiraled into an ethnic bloodbath.

The South Sudanese Civil War (2013–2018) displaced four million people and killed nearly 400,000. Entire towns were razed. Neighbors turned against each other. The young nation plunged into despair.

The 2018 Peace Agreement: A Fragile Hope

The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) in 2018 created a unity government. Machar returned as Vice President. Hopes rose, but implementation lagged. Key provisions—security sector reforms, constitutional review, elections—stalled.

Meanwhile, economic hardship deepened, fueled by corruption, declining oil revenues, and international aid fatigue.

The Current Crisis: 2025 and Beyond

Recent reports show rising tensions in Upper Nile State, Jonglei, and other regions. Factions loyal to both Kiir and Machar are rearming. Minor clashes have escalated into major skirmishes. Civilians are again fleeing into the bush.

According to the World Food Programme, over 7 million South Sudanese face severe food insecurity in 2025. Meanwhile, UNHCR reports that over 2.2 million people remain displaced within the country’s borders. The World Health Organization warns of escalating cholera outbreaks compounding the crisis. The overall humanitarian situation, as outlined by UN OCHA, impacts over 9.4 million South Sudanese civilians today.

Root Causes Behind Today’s Violence

• Unaddressed Historical Grievances: Colonial-era divisions and decades of war left deep scars.
• Ethnic Politics: Power is often seen through tribal lenses, not national unity.
• Weak Institutions: Courts, police, and government ministries are weak or politicized.
• Oil Dependency: Competition over control of oil fields fuels tensions.
• Lack of Reconciliation: Perpetrators of past atrocities have rarely been held accountable.
• External Meddling: Neighboring countries have often supported different factions for their own interests.

The Way Forward: Breaking the Cycle

1. National Dialogue Must Be Real, Not Cosmetic

A genuine, inclusive dialogue involving grassroots leaders, women, youth, religious leaders, and elders—not just political elites—is crucial.

2. Transitional Justice

Truth commissions, local justice initiatives, and hybrid courts must address past atrocities. Without accountability, there can be no trust.

3. Build National Identity

Civic education promoting “South Sudanese” identity over tribal affiliation must be introduced, especially in schools.

4. Diversify the Economy

Dependency on oil exports fuels corruption and competition. Investment in agriculture, education, and infrastructure will empower local economies and reduce grievances.

5. Empower Women and Youth

Women and youth made up the majority of victims and fighters. They must be at the center of any peacebuilding and leadership efforts.

A Message to the Future Generation of South Sudan

Young South Sudanese man proudly carrying national flag

To the young men and women of South Sudan:

You are not the prisoners of the past. You are the architects of tomorrow. Tribalism, hatred, and revenge are legacies you do not have to inherit.

Imagine a South Sudan where a child’s future is determined not by their tribe, but by their dreams. Imagine cities where Dinka, Nuer, Azande, Bari, and Murle live side by side, not as rivals but as brothers and sisters.

You can break the cycle.

Reject the politics of warlords. Reject the manipulation of identity. Build schools, not militias. Create art, not armies. Plant seeds, not landmines.

The world is watching. But more importantly, your children and grandchildren will be watching. What will you leave them?

You can leave them a nation reborn.

Conclusion: Hope Amid the Ashes

South Sudan’s story is not yet finished. Though the drums of war beat ominously, the song of peace can still rise.

It will not be easy. Forgiveness must overcome hatred. Courage must silence fear. Wisdom must replace blind ambition.

But the same spirit that carried South Sudanese through decades of struggle can carry them through this dark hour into a new dawn.

From the ashes of pain can rise a country that proves to the world—and to itself—that the dream of South Sudan is alive.

And it is worth fighting for, not with bullets, but with hope.