The Siege of Sudan’s Oil Lifeline: Drone Attacks and Economic Desperation

Before dawn on May 5, 2025, the calm of Port Sudan was shattered by the whir of drones, heralding the first of several attacks on the city’s oil depots—a vital artery for the nation’s economy. This assault on the PETCO Pump Station #5 not only ignited fires but also severe economic uncertainty, underscoring a crisis that has been simmering for years amid ongoing civil conflicts.

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Strategic Targets and Economic Fallout

Following the series of calculated drone strikes by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Sudan’s Energy and Petroleum Minister, Dr. Mohieddien Naiem Mohamed Saied, announced a potential shutdown of critical oil facilities. These facilities are not mere industrial assets; they are pivotal to both Sudan and South Sudan’s economic lifelines, heavily reliant on oil revenues. The attacks have not only disrupted operations but have also sparked fears of a prolonged economic downturn.

Direct Impact on Infrastructure

In the early hours of May 9, another drone attack severely damaged al-Hudi’s PETCO Pump Station #5, a critical node in Sudan’s oil export operations. The subsequent strikes targeted essential infrastructure, including a major diesel depot and electrical substations crucial for the operation of marine terminals. These attacks have led to:

• Immediate risk of halting the export operations due to damaged facilities.
• Severe shortages in fuel supplies critical for transportation and operations.
• Delayed shipments of necessary chemicals for pipeline maintenance and operation.

Dr. Naiem expressed his concerns, stating, “The current wave of attacks has crippled our ability to uphold our export commitments, pushing us to the brink of having to shut down key facilities, an action that would have devastating repercussions for our economy.”

Economic Ripple Effects

The implications of these disruptions extend far beyond the immediate damage to infrastructure. The economic health of both Sudan and South Sudan is in jeopardy, with the latter relying on oil for over 90% of its foreign exchange earnings.

Broader Economic Consequences

According to a recent study conducted by the Global Economic Policy Institute, the ongoing instability in oil production and exportation could lead to:

• A sharp decrease in GDP for both Sudan and South Sudan.
• Increased unemployment rates due to halted operations in the oil sector.
• Inflation spikes as a result of scarcity of fuel and increased import costs.

Dr. Ismail Kweider, a professor of economics at the University of Khartoum, commented on the situation: “The repeated targeting of these oil facilities not only disrupts the economic stability of Sudan but also of South Sudan. The cascading effects are likely to exacerbate the humanitarian crises in both countries, already strained by conflict and displacement.”

Historical Context and Ongoing Conflicts

The current crisis is not an isolated incident but part of a prolonged conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the RSF. This conflict has not only militarized state resources but has also made civilian infrastructure a target in the struggle for power and control over national assets.

Previous Incidents and Long-term Damage

The destruction wrought by the conflict includes significant incidents like the 2023 Khartoum refinery sabotage, which resulted in the loss of approximately 210,000 barrels of crude. The estimated cost to rebuild Sudan’s damaged oil infrastructure stands at around $5 billion—a sum that dwarfs the nation’s current financial capabilities.

Security analyst Sarah Johnson from the International Crisis Monitoring Group remarked, “The frequency and intensity of these attacks on oil infrastructure indicate a strategic shift by the RSF to economic targets, which could have a prolonged impact on regional stability and economic recovery.”

The ongoing strife has already displaced over 12 million people and pushed half of Sudan’s population into acute hunger, further complicating the socio-economic landscape.

The Road Ahead

As Sudan contemplates the daunting task of rebuilding its economy and infrastructure, the international community’s role becomes crucial. Global support and strategic interventions are essential to mediate the conflict and assist in the economic recovery of the region.

The future remains uncertain, with the potential shutdown of oil facilities looming large. The decisions made in the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether Sudan can navigate its way out of this economic precipice or if it will succumb to the weight of its compounded crises.