Lessons from Britain’s Failed Rwanda Deportation Deal for the Trump Administration

Introduction

On Sunday, Rwanda’s foreign minister said his country was in “early stage” talks with the Trump administration about a deal to take in migrants deported from the United States.

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That news had a familiar ring in Britain, where the former Conservative-led government agreed to a deal in 2022 to permanently deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, then spent two years and hundreds of millions of pounds trying — largely fruitlessly — to make the plan happen.

When Britain’s highest court ruled that the proposal broke human rights law, the Conservative government tried to use new legislation to override the judgment. But in the end, the policy proved an almost complete failure, and the new Labour government, which was elected last year, scrapped it, citing its huge expense and unworkability.

Lessons Learned

It could be expensive.

• The British government spent 715 million pounds, about $955 million, on the plan, which it claimed would deter illegal migration.
• Millions went on preparing deportation flights, detention centers, I.T. systems, staffing, and legal costs.
• Only four migrants ended up being sent to Rwanda, going voluntarily and being paid £3,000 each.
• The cost of the deal was projected to exceed £10 billion over a six-year period.

Rwanda probably can’t take large numbers of deportees.

• Rwanda is a small country, about 10,000 square miles in size.
• The Trump administration has not disclosed how many people it might want to send to Rwanda.
• A maximum of 1,000 people could have been transferred from Britain to Rwanda over five years, a small fraction of the asylum seekers arriving in Britain.

Under an Israeli deal, migrants sent to Rwanda disappeared.

• Rwanda already hosts hundreds of African refugees from Libya under a deal with the United Nations and African Union.
• A secretive agreement with Israel operated for five years before being ruled unlawful, with asylum seekers deported to Rwanda later disappearing.
• The Rwandan government did not comply with assurances made to the deported asylum seekers.

There could be legal challenges.

• The Trump administration has defied court orders before, but legal issues contributed to Britain’s deportation deal failure.
• The plan breached human rights laws and the UN Refugee Convention, risking the safety of genuine refugees.
• The British Supreme Court ruled the plan unlawful in 2023 due to the risk of sending refugees back to dangerous situations.

Abdi Latif Dahir contributed reporting.